Don't Blame Your Neighbors for Broken Budgets.
The $6.4B deficit isn't because of immigration. It's because the government bet our future on $74 oil that's now at $60.
The Price of Oil
Move the slider to see how oil prices affect Alberta's deficit.
Oil Price:
$60
per barrel
Projected Deficit:
-$16.9B
Based on $750M per $1 oil price change
Budget Assumption (2024)
$74/barrel
Government forecasted oil at this price
Current Price (Oct 2025)
$60/barrel
Reality is $14 lower than forecast
If oil was still at $80, we wouldn't even be talking about an immigration crisis.
Reality Check: What Really Changed?
Follow the timeline from boom to bust—and see who got blamed for the government's budget problems.
"We Need More People"
The Action:
Premier Smith writes to PM Trudeau demanding the federal government **double** Alberta's immigration allotment to 20,000 per year.
The Quote:
"The decision on Alberta's 2024 allocations... negatively impacts Alberta's ability to grow and diversify its economy."
The Context:
Oil was near $80/barrel. The budget was in surplus. The government wanted more workers to fuel the boom.
The Oil Hole
-$1.65 Billion in Resource Revenue
The government's revenue projections were 30% higher than reality. Oil prices fell from $80 to $60/barrel.
The Infrastructure Legacy
$25 Billion Backlog
Funding for rural water/roads was slashed before the population peak. Decades of deferred maintenance.
The Scapegoat
+197 Net International Migrants
International immigration has stalled, yet the 'crisis' narrative continues.
"Immigration is the Problem"
The Action:
The Premier announces a referendum to "take control" and **decrease** immigration levels.
The Quote:
"Out-of-control immigration levels are overwhelming our core social services."
The Context:
Oil has crashed to $60/barrel. The budget is in a $6.4B deficit.
5 Myths the Government Wants You to Believe in October
Let's separate fact from fiction
Click or tap any card to reveal the truth
Key Takeaway: The fiscal challenges facing Alberta are decades in the making and rooted in resource revenue volatility—not immigration.
The Bottom Line
The "immigration crisis" didn't start because of a change in border policy—it started because the government lost its oil revenue and needed someone to blame for the deficit.